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winning  

Contest Win Probabilities and Ability Calibration
View on CRAN: Click here


Download and install winning package within the R console
Install from CRAN:
install.packages("winning")

Install from Github:
library("remotes")
install_github("cran/winning")

Install by package version:
library("remotes")
install_version("winning", "0.3.0")



Attach the package and use:
library("winning")
Maintained by
Peter Cotton
[Scholar Profile | Author Map]
All associated links for this package
First Published: 2026-09-09
Latest Update: 2026-09-09
Description:
Solves the horse race problem in both directions. Infers relative ability from win probabilities (or betting dividends) for contests whose entrants share a common performance distribution, with dead heats handled exactly, by the lattice fixed-point algorithm of Cotton (2021) <doi:10.1137/19M1276261>. Also computes all N win probabilities of a factor-structured Gaussian race (multinomial probit with low-rank-plus-diagonal covariance) in one shared-lattice pass of O(Q*N*L) operations, and inverts observed shares to abilities by a damped Newton method with analytic slopes. A dependency-free base-R port of the reference python package 'winning'. Performances are times: lowest wins.
How to cite:
Peter Cotton (2026). winning: Contest Win Probabilities and Ability Calibration. R package version 0.3.0, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/winning. Accessed 25 Oct. 2026.
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