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jubilee  

Forecasting Long-Term Growth of the U.S. Stock Market and Business Cycles
View on CRAN: Click here


Download and install jubilee package within the R console
Install from CRAN:
install.packages("jubilee")

Install from Github:
library("remotes")
install_github("cran/jubilee")

Install by package version:
library("remotes")
install_version("jubilee", "0.3.3")



Attach the package and use:
library("jubilee")
Maintained by
Stephen H-T. Lihn
[Scholar Profile | Author Map]
All associated links for this package
First Published: 2018-09-03
Latest Update: 2020-01-24
Description:
A long-term forecast model called "Jubilee-Tectonic model" is implemented to forecast future returns of the U.S. stock market, Treasury yield, and gold price. The five-factor model forecasts the 10-year and 20-year future equity returns with high R-squared above 80 percent. It is based on linear growth and mean reversion characteristics in the U.S. stock market. This model also enhances the CAPE model by introducing the hypothesis that there are fault lines in the historical CAPE, which can be calibrated and corrected through statistical learning. In addition, it contains a module for business cycles, optimal interest rate, and recession forecasts.
How to cite:
Stephen H-T. Lihn (2018). jubilee: Forecasting Long-Term Growth of the U.S. Stock Market and Business Cycles. R package version 0.3.3, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/jubilee. Accessed 25 Jun. 2026.
Previous versions and publish date:
0.2.4 (2018-09-03 13:30), 0.2.5 (2018-09-11 21:40), 0.3.1 (2019-07-19 23:30)
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Complete documentation for jubilee
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